Articles

The Race for Chase

By Michael Stewart/@golferbad

Introduction: The 2019 NFL regular season is now officially over and the final standings are in for the Race for Chase. The last few weeks created a lot of drama to determine which team would finish 2nd in the draft to possibly select DE Chase Young as there’s a 99% probability that quarterback Joe Burrow will be the 1st overall pick for the Cincinnati Bengals who finished with the worse record at 2-14. Below is the final list of team’s that could select Chase Young based on team’s ahead them might do. Let’s look at each team and project probability of drafting Chase Young:

 Washington Redskins  (Record: 3-13)

Comment: The Redskins finished out the season with their 4th consecutive loss to the hands of division rivals Dallas Cowboys 47-16. The Washington Redskins owning the 2nd overall pick have many needs and DE is certainly one of them. They could go a different direction and select OT Andrew Thomas to replace Trent Williams. However; the thought of teaming Young up with last year’s 1st round pick Montez Sweat will be too tempting: Probability to draft Chase Young: 99%

Detroit Lions (Record: 3-12-1)

Comment:  The Lions season spiraled out of control once quarterback Matthew Stafford suffered a back injury and was put on the injured list. They finished with nine straight losses with their season finale to the Green Bay Packers 23-20. The Lions can go in many directions with the 3rd overall pick as they help on both sides of the ball. If Young is gone, OT Thomas could be the choice or possibly CB Jeffery Okudah. Probability to draft Chase Young: 1%

New York Giants (Record: 4-12)

Comment: The Giants finished out the season with a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles 34-17; which enabled the Eagles to win the NFC east and earn a playoff spot. For the Giants, having the 4th overall pick should provide them with a solid prospect, however; they have literally no chance of selecting Chase Young, unless they trade up; which is highly unlikely. The Giants have already fired Head Coach Pat Shurmur, so GM Dave Gettleman will need to find his replacement with enough time to collaborate and focus on the draft. Probability to draft Chase Young: 1%

Final Thoughts: Despite the Giants having a 1% probability to select Chase Young, there’s always an outside chance we’ll still be on the board at #4 and here’s the only scenario I could come up with: The Washington Redskins decide that they need to invest in the offensive line to give protection to rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins, so they pass on Young and draft OT Andrew Thomas, who is regarded as the best tackle in the draft. The Lions picking next have major concerns about the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford and decide that it might be best for them to select his successor with the 3rd overall pick between either Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa. This scenario has a 1% chance of playing out, but it does have substance as teams have passed on prospects projected to go higher before in the draft for other needs. Giant fans can only hope that this scenario picks up steam and plays out on draft night and Chase Young is still on the board when the Giants select.